Uncertainty is generally a good thing for a democratic contest. Most of the time an election whose outcome is known in advance is a sign of a vice more than a virtue. But, when uncertainty is the result of the weaknesses of the actors involved in the contest, things are turned upside down: a virtue can become a vice and, vice versa, a vice turns into a virtue. This is exactly the case with Haiti at this time.
First, no one could say for sure if President Martelly would be around by the time his successor was chosen. Second, the composition of Electoral Council (CEP, in French) in charge of the election was never and still is not a settled matter. Third there are so many weak candidates and parties in the contest that the only certainty is that anything can happen. The likely victor is a matter of pure hazard. Everything depends on the resources that can be mustered to convince the other actors that he is the least bad choice.
With this calculus in mind, on October 25 Haitians went to the polls for the second time this year. Participation was higher this time than previously. Around 25% of registered voters participated in the contest, up from 18% on August 9. But more than 50% of the 2 million voters where delegated by the parties. Nearly a million citizens cast their ballots in a place different from their original polling station.
Two weeks after the elections, on November 5, the CEP announced the results. They were largely favorable to the candidates and parties sympathetic to the current administration. Jovenel Moise, the presidential candidate from the PHTK, the party of President Martelly, won a plurality of the vote (32.81%). In second position came Jude Célestin, from the LAPEH party, with 25.27% of the votes. Moise Jean Charles, from the Pitit Deslin party and Maryse Narcisse of Fanmi Lavalas came in third and fourth with 14.27% and 7.05% of the votes respectively. According to the electoral law the top two candidates qualify for the run-off in December 27. The other 50 candidates won about 1% of the vote each.
The results of the parliamentary elections have been also favorable to the party of the President. The PHTK will control a plurality of the vote in the Lower Chamber. It is expected to command an absolute majority of the deputies after alliances with parties in the orbit of the executive. No party will have absolute control of the Senate. But, again, parties associated with the President will have a majority of the seats.
These are impressive results for a party that was created only 3 years ago, with new politicians that never participated in any political activity before. The opposition has denounced the verdict of the CEP. They have been said that the election was rigged in advance to favor the President and his allies. Most of the allegations accused the representatives of PHTK of voting many times in different polling stations. So far, the CEP has annulled the results of about 3% of the polling stations for fraudulent procedures.
Since the publication of the results thousands of demonstrators have been protesting in the streets of the most important cities. At least one demonstrator has been killed by the police and several partisans of the Pitit Desalt party have been jailed. In some respects, the current situation is merely reproducing what has been the tradition in electoral contests in Haiti. Since 2001 results have been contested in the streets. Each time the opposition parties have been able to change the results.
After the parliamentary elections in 2001 the opposition took to the streets to protest against the results. Their demonstrations culminated 3 years later with French and US military interventions and the exile of President Aristide. In 2006 President Préval used the streets to force the CEP to change the result. He was successful and won the election at the first round. In 2011, the current President used the same tactic. He was moved from the third to the second position and was eventually elected in the run-off contest.
This is where the calculus of uncertainty comes in. In the last three presidential elections politicians have learned that the best way to guarantee their success is to wage a bloody battle before the contest in order to weaken their opponents. Because every actor is playing the same game, at the end of the day everyone is effectively weakened. At this point the most important thing is not the incompetency of the CEP, the fraud, real or only alleged, or the popularity of the opponents but the capacity to impose a certain perception. Then the mobilization can begin.
At first, the International Community (US, OAS, UN, French of Haiti) stands by the official results. But, when the situation becomes too chaotic, they usually change their position. No one can afford a power vacuum. That could put thousands of refugees on the road (actually at sea) which could affect the entire region. When the international community begins to analyze the political situation in these terms, the opposition has succeeded. In the last three elections it has been able to change to his favor the situation.
This is the calculus behind the post-electoral protests taking place at this moment in Haiti. This is not to say that the result of the elections did not respect the decision of the voters or that the CEP was not clean and competent in the way it handled the electoral process. It is just to highlight the strategies and tactics of the actors at elections in Haiti. Everything will depend, in the coming weeks and months, on the capacity of the opposition to change, through its mobilization, the perception of certain key international actors.